Drake’s More Life playlist and Future’s rapid-succession releases of FUTURE and HNDRXX all made big splashes in the last couple months. But beyond the #1 chart success achieved by each project, the artists’ underlying approach to music-making and marketing has grown increasingly dissimilar.

Here, I consider each artist’s musical output, release strategies and resulting audience responses. Data is derived from streaming totals provided courtesy of Spotify and supplemented by the Billboard charts.

Drake — More Life

56 North American concerts and 30 European performances later, Drake followed Views with a playlist, More Life. “I didn’t want people to say this is my next album. Views was my album. This is something that, after Views, I was just inspired. I wanted to keep the music flowing,” Drake explained on OVOSOUND Radio.

More Life is not an exhausted attempt to capitalize on the chart success of previous works, e.g. Future’s EVOL. And it is not a resentful attempt to justify himself to the critics (and general public), who mostly agreed Views was mediocre.

In fact, the project feels fun and creative again, with the ‘playlist’ distinction not only serving to lower listeners’ expectations but also relieve Drake of pressure, empowering him in the process. While not taking himself too seriously, Drake experiments across genres, pulling influences and sounds from other cultures and artists but never losing himself in the process. There’s plenty of UK flare and Jamaican slang, and tracks including Kanye and Young Thug lean more towards their featured artists’ aesthetics.

Still, with all its variety, More Life does not feel confused. Drake is the unifying identity. And he is at his nimblest here, finding balance and delivering sensible transitions over 22 songs. In contrast, Future needed two physically separate albums to achieve this type of balance.

Outside influences are given fair space on More Life and the diversity of styles is refreshing, delivering a clever and more tasteful parting note than Views. It’s a soundtrack or “music for your life”, as Drake told Fader. In his closing lyrics to the Playlist’s last song, “Do Not Disturb”, Drake says, “[I’m] takin' summer off, 'cause they tell me I need recovery... I'll be back in 2018 to give you the summary."

Looking ahead and if history is at all telling, Drake will keep a careful watch on how his varying artistic personas are received while considering the direction for his next album.

Future — FUTURE / HNDRXX

On the eve of releasing his self-titled album, Future spoke with Zane Lowe of Apple Music, “I want to be in that re-invention stage where you keep people on their toes”. This is a departure from his mentality a year earlier, prior to the release of his previous full-length album, EVOL. The idea of creating a new identity then was “very scary”; “why fix something if it isn’t broke?”.

Future’s newfound musical desire to create in “a different lane” seems to be an admission of the old being broke. While FUTURE was hardly transformational, HNDRXX, his surprise release just a week later, was a change of pace. It reveals a more sensitive side over smoother textures. And there’s a lot to enjoy. But after burying listeners with 34 tracks in just a couple weeks and eight different albums and mixtapes between 2015 and 2016, the question remains: Will his self-admitted “addiction to the studio” be his downfall?

“Do you ever want to tell Future to pump the breaks?” Charlemagne asked Epic Records chairman L.A Reid on The Breakfast Club in early 2016. Reid paused, smirked, and looked towards other members of his team off-screen before responding. “Ya, I’ve had those conversations… Every artist has a window where they make their great music. And the more you put out, the closer you’re getting to the end of that run. That’s the thing that concerns me.”

With FUTURE and HNDRXX, Future became the first artist to debut two albums at No. 1 in consecutive weeks. And EVOL, released a year earlier, also went to No. 1. So Future achieved three No. 1 albums in less than seven months. Yet beyond this trio of debuts lies a secondary narrative. Each subsequent release fell quicker down the charts. This result contrasts with Drake’s chart performances; each of his subsequent releases stayed longer near the top.

It’s too early to tell how Drake and Future’s new releases will fare over time. But, listenership results from Billboard and Spotify reveal the historic trends of each artist’s unique approach.

How Did We Get Here?

The story begins with Drake’s and Future’s seminal 2015 albums, If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late and Dirty Sprite 2. For Drake, IYRTITL was a record-breaking tape with all 17 tracks charting simultaneously on Billboard’s Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs. For Future, Dirty Sprite 2 was a career-rejuvenating album and his first No. 1 atop the Billboard Top 200 chart. Before releasing their respective follow-up studio albums in 2016, the artists followed up with a collaborative tape together, What a Time to Be Alive.

Future Background

As Future released six tapes in just over a year, a stylistic monotony eventually set in. The run began in 2015 and caught stride when Future released Dirty Sprite 2, arguably his strongest project to date. DS2 came in the wake of a well-publicized failed relationship with Ciara that influenced his music towards the pop realm. Thankful to regain his footing and comfort within the woozy codeine-induced haze of atmospheric street rap, Future vowed to stay grounded in the music that first defined and now had saved his career.

"To stop in the middle of my run, and settle down and create a whole different kind of music? It's gonna be super hard to make that transition. People look at what I did as one of the greatest comebacks of all time – But to do it a third time?"

Timing

True to his word, Future didn’t settle down following the success of DS2. He jumped at the opportunity to collaborate with Drake on the What a Time to Be Alive ‘retail mixtape’. Then he released another mixtape, Purple Reign, all before his follow-up studio album, EVOL. Both Purple Reign and EVOL were out well before Drake responded with his full-length follow-up, Views.

It seems Future’s hyper-drive to continue releasing music stemmed from a combination of unbounded confidence – feeling whatever he dropped would hit – and fear that if he took a breath all would be lost again. "I want to keep doing what I'm doing and see how far I can go… If I miss a day, I'm afraid I'll miss out on a smash record." But, at risk here was listener boredom, oversaturation, and dilution of what was a very strong album, DS2 (not even considering the age-old quality vs. quantity issue).

EVOL

Observing fans’ response to EVOL, there’s evidence some negative results were realized. EVOL’s week one streams, irrespective of the album’s quality, should have benefitted from Future’s high profile following the success of Dirty Sprite 2. And, particularly in comparison to DS2’s week one streams (which followed his disappointing sophomore album Honest), we’d expect higher week one streams for EVOL. However, as displayed below, EVOL failed to match the opening streams of DS2. (In comparison, Drake’s studio album follow-up Views peaked at nearly three times the streams of IYRTITL.)

EVOL’s disappointing opening performance is added evidence that Future had overfed the streets. Rather than building excitement, Future exhausted fans. Worsened by the release of a similarly dark-lit mixtape, Purple Reign, just a few weeks prior to EVOL.

As a guest on The Breakfast Club, record executive Jermaine Dupri argued that even the release of Purple Reign was ill-advised. “You got to have someone that studies the business to say, ‘Yo dog listen, I know you want to put this music out but you’re ringing off right now in the club’. When is Purple Reign going to start poppin’?” he asked. “About three months”, responded DJ Envy.

And Envy was right. It would be about three months before Purple Reign’s lead single “Wicked” gained traction and appeared on the Hot R&B/Hip-Hop charts. Further, this only occurred after “Wicked” was re-released on the streaming version of EVOL.

Unlike all other Future/Drake albums available on Spotify between 2015 and 2016, EVOL’s daily streams did not peak at release. It wasn’t until 2½ months later, shortly after the premier of the video for lead single “Low Life ft. The Weeknd” and likely benefiting from the addition of The Weeknd fans, that EVOL’s daily streams peaked.

The graph below displays healthy Spotify stream trajectories of other Drake/Future albums compared to EVOL. Dotted lines begin upon stabilization* of an album’s daily streams. (Views is graphed on the secondary vertical axis).

Too Much Sauce (or Content)

At least, it seems Future internalized the truths evidenced by EVOL’s flop. He went quiet for about a year following its release, then resurfaced and re-branded with FUTURE and HENDRXX. "I don't want to be attached to What a Time to Be Alive or Dirty Sprite 2," Future told Zane Lowe in a pre-release interview. (Apparently, he desired so much distance from EVOL that he didn’t even mention it).

In the same interview, Future spoke of his strategy for career longevity. “[I’m] not just doing it to put songs out. People [don’t] understand at the time… It’s like chess, it’s going to take time for [the fans] to figure out what I was trying to do… If you catch on right away, you [are] super special; you [are] a genius”. Even if there is an underlying vision, albeit too complex for non-geniuses, Future is likely doing himself a disservice by overwhelming his audience. We’re forced to dig through a clutter of releases to realize his intentions and discover the quality music hidden within.

Drake Background

Musically, Drake has side-stepped with ease over the last couple years, releasing music beyond the traditional album without worrying about boring or over-saturating his audience. At worst, his SoundCloud singles and collaborative mixtapes are somewhat ignored. At best, they are refreshing changes-of-pace and successes in their own right. All the while he’s subtly researching the market, testing sounds and aesthetics for his more calculated albums.

What a Time to Be Alive

Following If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late, Drake teamed up with Future for their collaborative tape, What a Time to Be Alive. While some argue that it’s a Future album with Drake verses tagged on, where Drake “often sounds out of his element”, the release appears to have served him well in the long run.

On WATTBA, Drake’s presence is felt without oversaturating the “Drake Sound” for future solo releases. For Drake, the tape clearly was marketed as a quick and impromptu side-project. For Future, on the other hand, this quick recording-to-release approach is typical. Even given the significance of being an Apple exclusive, fans and media recognized WATTBA as Drake doing something outside the scope of a normal album. Alternatively, Future fans inevitably perceived WATTBA as the album itself.

The graph below depicts how What a Time to Be Alive was taken more seriously by Future’s audience compared to Drake’s. WATTBA was released on Apple Music four days before its Spotify release. During this period, streaming for previous Drake works continued to rise; his audience did not depart to hear WATTBA on Apple Music. In comparison, Spotify streaming of DS2, Future’s prior release, fell as soon as WATTBA was available on Apple Music.

What a Time to Be Alive was released seven months after Drake’s IYRTITL, but only two months following Future’s DS2. With fans longer separated from new Drake music, WATTBA pulled them back and bolstered his streaming totals. In contrast, Future already had most “ears” tuned in, making this quick album release less effective in building his audience.

Data represented on the graph below indicates WATTBA complimented Drake’s market status, as streams of his previous works IYRTITL and Back to Back remain elevated after WATTBA’s Spotify release. However, WATTBA serves as a substitute release for Future, transferring rather than increasing listenership. This is evidenced by streams of Future’s previous album DS2 falling to a lowered stabilization.

Balance

Drake’s commitment to stylistic diversity on both album and non-album releases has kept his audience refreshed and open to absorbing new material.

In typical Drake fashion, he dropped three songs on SoundCloud just prior to What a Time to Be Alive. Responding to Meek Mill’s ghostwriting allegations, Drake packaged the Meek diss-track “Charged Up” with the similarly dim-lit “Right Hand” and contrasting Caribbean bounce of “Hotline Bling”. While neither “Charged Up” nor “Right Hand” were notably successful on their own, their contrasting balance seemed to magnify rather than dilute the focus on “Hotline Bling” in a mutualistic relationship. “Back to Back” came a week later as a stand-alone record.

This one-two-three punch of hard/soft, tough/sensitive tracks would become recurrent throughout Drake’s career. Take “Pop Style” and “One Dance” released simultaneously prior to Views, then “Two Birds One Stone”, “Sneakin”, and “Fake Love” before More Life.

Drake also maintains similar balance across multiple projects. For example, “Hotline Bling” may have benefited from its contrast to Drake’s preceding project, If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late, which was characterized by stark, edgy and dry beats.

And the idea for “Hotline Bling” may have been inspired by the success of Drake’s first true dancehall-esque record two years prior, “Hold On We’re Going Home”. Notably, “Hold On We’re Going Home” contrasted in style with other records of its time. “It’s not “Versace”, it’s not “Started from the Bottom”,” Drake told MTV News in 2013.

While “Hotline Bling” resided atop Billboard’s Hot 100, Drake connected and pulled from Future’s off-setting dreary aesthetic. The resulting collaborative records, “Where Ya At” and “Jumpman” hung in Billboard’s Top 15, not far below the top of the charts. As “Jumpman” picked up steam and moved into the Top 5, the timing was right to return to island-influenced rhythms with “Work”, Drake’s top-charting collaboration with Rihanna.

Shortly after “Work”, Drake released the cold and revengeful “Summer Sixteen” to promote his forthcoming Views. This played an important role for Drake by cleansing the pre-Views palette; Views would rely heavily on tracks stylistically similar to “Work”.

The strategy paid off and dancehall/Caribbean bounce tracks led the way for Views. “One Dance” would set the record for most weeks atop Billboard’s Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs, while “Controlla” and “Too Good” hung within the Chart’s Top 5. Yet again, tougher, more rigid tracks were not far behind; the “harsh chill of winter… brought forth via cold snares and ice-cube synths” aptly characterized about half the album’s tracks, although these charted below those with summery feels.

As the graph above fills, notice the warmer colors of Caribbean dancehall-inspired tracks dominating the charts recently.

When “Hold On We’re Going Home” was released in 2013, Drake told MTV, “I’ve never really put out a record like this before, so we’ll see how it goes”. Clearly, his willingness and ability to expand genres with “Hold On” would inform the direction of his career over the next couple years, most prominently on Views.

Know Yourself

As Drake oscillates between sweet and street, SoundCloud and Apple releases, collaborative mixtapes and studio albums, his identity as perceived by his fans isn’t confused, but instead strengthened. It helps that “Drake understands not only his own creativity but he understands the exact ways his creativity intersects with the other creatives of his era,” as music critic Jon Caramanica articulated on the New York Times’ “Popcast”.

With patience to absorb and process new ideas, then the cleverness to implement them his way, Drake is at his best. Admittedly, and I think he would agree, Views was a bit stale. But everything he did after IYRTITL to complement Views earned it record-breaking streams.

More Life finds Drake once again inspired by new sounds and meeting them somewhere in the middle.  By showcasing Grime over slower R&B tempos, or adding only a subtle hook and updated female vocalist on Black Coffee’s South African house track “Superman” (retitled “Get it Together” on More Life), Drake continues to deliver music that’s stylistically stretching, yet distinctly his own.

Thanks to Spotify Insights for providing the data.